Risk vs Reward in Bridge, Part 3 - Swinging With Slams
(Click here if you'd like to read Part 2 first) When we play a session of bridge...
An important factor in playing good bridge centers on evaluating risk. Every time you take an action at the bridge table you're taking a risk. Even Pass can be costly if at that moment, the right choice is to bid. Some actions are more risky than others. But risk is not always a bad thing. You only want to make risky bids if the rewards are worth it. The rewards from a bid can be things like making a contract with a hand that would not normally win, helping partner get off to a good lead, or getting the opponents to make mistakes in their bidding.
One example of a type of a bid that has both risk and reward is a preemptive opening bid. Yes, a preempt opening can cause us to bid and make a game with fewer high-card points (HCP) than normal. But what's more likely is for a preemptive opening to be an effective disruptive bid that forces the opponents into making difficult bidding decisions. If the goal of preempting is to do as much damage as possible without getting into too much trouble, then we need to know how to evaluate risk in different situations; when it's safe to act and when it's potentially risky.
The way to properly evaluate a hand that could be a candidate for a preemptive opening bid has a lot more to it than just HCP, and having “two of the top three honors” in the suit.
Better hand evaluation (risk analysis) requires deeper consideration:
HCP – The number of HCP we need in order to make a safe yet damaging judgement varies based on the situation.
Suit Quality – The safest suits are the ones that play well opposite shortness. The best suits are not the ones that have top honors, but the ones that have solid cards in the middle of the suit.
QJT9xx
KJT9xx
AJT9xx
KQT9xx
Etc..
Shape of the Hand – 6322 is the worst shape of any hand that has a 6-card suit. 6331 is slightly better. 6421 even better than that. 6430 has even more playing strength.
Location of Honors – Hands with points in long suits are much better than hands with points in short suits.
Both of these hands have the same number of HCP and shape. But the first hand is clearly much stronger than the second. Consider all of these factors when you're making a decision about the playing strength of a hand – and thus how much risk you are prepared to take.
But there are other things to consider when analyzing risk for a preemptive bid:
Vulnerability - There are 4 types of vulnerability to consider. Favorable (we are non-vul, and they are vul), All White (everyone non-vul), All Red (everyone vul), and Un-Favorable (we are vul, and they are non-vul). The less vulnerable we are the more risk we can afford to take.
Position – Our actions can vary based on the seat we're sitting in. In 1st, 2nd, and 3rd seats we have different chances of our preempt successfully harming the opponents. In the 1st seat we have the best chance of a preemptive opening bid harming the opponents, in the 2nd seat it is less likely since one of the opponents is already a based hand. In the 3rd seat we may vary our preempt as our partner is already a passed hand and we want to create as much complexity as possible for the 4th player.
Opponents – When you are the big underdog (i.e. playing against much more experienced opponents) and you just play down the middle, you're likely to lose. So you should take more risk when playing against much more experienced players. Conversely, if you're the hot favorite (playing against far less experienced players) then you're likely to do well by just doing “normal things”, rather than taking risks. .
How Well is Your Game Going? - When you're having a great game then don’t take too much risk, try to avoid getting a disastrous result. On the other hand, when you're having a bad game, you should take more risk and preempt a bit more aggressively... you need to get some good results if you can.
Many of these same factors are considerations for other types of preemptive actives. We consider all of these things when we are extending partner’s preemptive opening bid or if we are making a weak jump raise of partners opening bid or overcall.
Make sure that when you preempt the bidding, either with an opening bid or a preemptive jump raise you don’t just follow a simple formula or law. You need to assess all of the available information and evaluate the risk vs reward of a particular action. Is the risk worth it, and do the circumstances require you to take the risk in the first place? Getting better at determining risk vs. reward will help you get more consistently solid results at the bridge table.
Let me know your thoughts on preemptive openings and raises in the comments below and be sure to come back next month when I'll be diving into the risks and rewards of overcalls.
À propos de l’auteur
Robert is a professional player and teacher who you’ll find all over North America (and the world). He's the founder of Adventures in Bridge and you'll find him hosting events, either virtual or in-person, almost every week of the year! Robert's also the president of the ACBL Educational Foundation where he's working to build an institution to shepherd the long term good of bridge!
Quote: HCP – The number of HCP we need in order to make a safe yet damaging judgement varies based on the situation. Should read:
HCP – The number of HCP we need in order to make a safe yet damaging pre-emptive bid will vary depending on the situation. But still adds little value to the topic being discussed.
Open weak 2 with 5 card suit in 3 rd seat only with favorable vulnerability ?
Heidi
nice article. what matters more is consistency and unbreakable understanding with partner
Please share your views on hands with high cards (Aces and Kings) in side suits. Particularly when in first or second seat.
My point is, we may have defense in case the opps bid game. For a lower level contract I can always cheap in with a jump overcall in my next turn.
Per asking about A's or K's in your hand being necessary in responding to pard's preempt - Covered by the HCP (High Card Points) portion of the formula. If you don't have Aces / Kings in the potential side suits, your formula result won't reach 14. , so a pass is in order. If your hand doesn't have enough HCP to aid partner in pard's contract, you don't have enough HCP to double the opp's interfering bid. Remember that my advice is only to be used if your reasonable choices are limited to passing or raising pard's suit, after a pass or double by RHO. Later in the auction, an interference bid from the opps should be treated normally (Law of Total Tricks, consider vulnerabilties, etc.)
I use the "Rule of 2/3" when determining whether (or not) to preempt. AND I count TRICKS in my hand when determining how far to carry my partners preempt. Both of these approaches work FOR me and take SOME of the guesswork out of bidding/responding to preempts.
Undoubling@gmail.com
Joel Thomas P496478
Perhaps my earlier reply to the article will help. My rule of "14 and 17" is not from an expert, but from experience, and has never failed me. Take my advice with as many grains of salt as you'd like.
Oops, my above advice, to be more specific, is to be used when you're deciding whether to pass or to raise partner's preempt. If you're thinking of bidding your own suit (yikes), this advice won't help you.
My comment is about responding to partner’s opening preempt, if RHO doubles or passes. Add your HCP to the number of cards in partner’s suit in your hand. If partner made a 2-bid, pass with less than 14, make a single raise with 14-16, and raise to game with 17+. If pard opens with a 3-bid, subtract three from each of those limits. If pard opens with a 4-bid, pass with less than 14, but otherwise use your favorite form of Blackwood to make a slam try.
Thank you Robert for this article. I started playing bridge very late in life but loved the game so much that stopped [laying other card games. Like Canasta,Rummy, Black queen etc. Do not have a regular patner hence keep playing different systems which do not help me in being good at my game. I play simple American standard .Strong club and strong diamond [ which no one plays and more ] Phony club etc I shall look forward to your articles to improve my game. Thanks,
A lot of interesting suggestions from everyone. I will try that count of 13. Robert:can you comment on these suggestions next month? Thx.
I count losers and subtract from 13. With at least 6 in a suit, I then add 3 (not Vulnerable) or 2 (Vulnerable) to determine the level I should bid to. I would avoid preempting if I had a 4 card major outside the preempting suit, and HCP must be in the preempting suit. I could thus sometimes bid 3 of a suit with 6 cards in the suit; 4 of a suit with 7 cards in the suit - or even 2 of a suit with 7 cards in the suit. This has served me well Let me know what you think
So the answer gives you the number of tricks you should make? Thanks, Ida
the article is very sound in every respect. Well done. thanks Max
If your partner has not bid or passed and could have a strong hand and the opponents have not bid, I suggest not preempting unless you want to signal that your hand is useless played in any other suit. You might be making it difficult for your partnership to find the best contract. Sometimes long suits with side entries play very well in NT.
Your points dovetail very nicely with those of Robert. Your last sentence is especially good to remember.
Recommend the Pavicek calculator at http://rpbridge.net/cgi-bin/xsh1.pl
For any distribution of 13 numbers adding to 13, it will give the probability.
My results show:
Given a 6 card suit, you will find 2+ support about 75% of the time.
Given a 5 card suit, you will find 2+ support about 83% of the time.
While exact number calculations at the table are not needed, it does give
one a feel for how often to expect a bad fit,
cccccttttt on BBO
I could not figure out how to determine given a 7 card suit, how often (%) will you find 2+ support. Can you please post that?
Ist seat if non vulnerable holding 7 hearts and 5 pts say AJ I open 3 if vulnerable then I open 2 then. Let the opps scramble from there!
I mean non vulnerable open 3 vulnerable open 2
How good does a 6-7 suit need to be to preempt. Vul vs. non? Should it also be a suit you want partner to lead if opps buy contract? (goes to long topless suits)
Many players play double over a pre-empt for take out. That is a get out of jail free card. Going 4 off undoubled when you have a long suit will always be a good score because They must have game in their long suit.
The trouble with that is the partner of the player making the take out double has the option to pass for penalties, so not always a ‘get out of jail free’!
I have read that one should avoid calling preempt when holding a four card major.
I agree, won’t open if I have 3 card support. This because p can often be waiting to open a major and game could be on. If u preempt u can’t find game
As far as HCP count while making pre emptive bid, I have experienced that point count of 8-11 in vulnerable position and 5-11 in non vulnerable position works quite well.
11HCP and a 6 card suit is an opening hand and should not be preempting,
Bridge is a 'partner' game !. Partnership must grow with both knowledges. Each one must understand the meaning of the preentive bid to evaluate how to follow biding !. Sorry my English.
Good reminders.
I’d like to know the responses by partner to preemptive bids
You might find several resources by respected experts and teachers by Googling your phrase. Here's one: https://kwbridge.com/pre-respond.htm
I'm a little surprised that Robert made no mention of the rule of 2, 3, and 4 (within 2 tricks, i.e. 6 when making weak 2 with unfav vulnerability; within 3 with equal favorability; within 4 with favorable vulnerability). Is this considered old school these days?
Short answer, yes. Robert counsels against this rule at the start of the penultimate paragraph by saying that all the considerations he listed above should be considered. The rule of 2, 3, and 4 is taught to beginners so they have some framework to judge whether or not to preempt at the beginning of their bridge experience, but, in our club, it is mentioned that this rule is modified by other considerations once experience is gained.
Thanks
I've always worked to the rule of 500 when pre-empting in the 1st or 2nd seat - basically, assume the contract will be playing doubled, and bid to the level where the expected penalty looking just at your own hand would be 500.
This has the advantage of giving partner, who may have a decent hand, a solid basis on which to respond (e.g to raise a non-vul 3H opening to game, he would need to provide 4 tricks - 3 to offset the penalty, and 1 for the raise). Tricks could be either quick winners, or support for the pre-empt suit - 1tk for 3-4 card support, 2 for more).
In 3rd position, the pre-empt is being made solely as a disruptive bid - i.e. there is little expectation of partner raising to game with a passed hand - so you have more licence.
Excellent article Robert! Can you please tell me what the following from your article means? What is a "weak jump raise of partners opening bid or overcall." Law of total tricks maybe?? Thanks -- most grateful for your reply!
Hope you are well! I recall many fun times talking with you at Zibby's Bridge Marathons!
Nice article !! Easy to understand. Thanks
Thanks for the great tips.
I also consider where I sit when one of the opponents bids. I prefer to sit behind the bidder.
Our National Team play: Think about a preemp as high as you dare, then with the right vulnerability - take it one higher 🙂
My partner likes to open a weak two with a seven card major. What do you think about that?
I think he should open a weak 3. It's misleading to partner.
Je suis d'accord
Yes, ask same question re having a 4 card M. Have been told not to pre emp if holding a 4 card M
I would still bid the seven card hand, but not as weak if I had 7 or more points in the four card major and three of the top 4 in the weak suit bid. I'd bid one of the weak suit.
I don't like opening 3 because of a 7 card suit. The penalty points can be massive
Yes, especially if you are vulnerable. If not, then it depends on the feature of the hand (inaddition to what's already been mentioned), eg honors, number of losers,
I am a new bridge player so the answer to my question may be obvious. Great points above on preempts. Question is what does “vary the preempt mean” when in 3rd seat.
It is very common to shade a preemptive bid in 3rd seat. So a weak two might well only be a five card suit, especially in spades (they have to join in at the 3 level) or when short in spades (harder for them to decide a level).
This is backwards. You want to preempt more aggressively the cheaper the suit. When you make an aggressive preempt in spades, you often endplay the opps into penalising you which (it being an aggressive preempt) probably isn't what you want. When you make an aggressive preempt in clubs and someone makes a takeout double, it's much more likely they're going to pull it.
Also, when you preempt in a major, you rule out that major, typically meaning there's only two denominations they'll want to play game in (NT and the other major). When you preempt in a minor, they have to figure out which of the three to pick from.
I avoid weak two openings when I have a four-card major as a second suit. Is this sound?
Definitely, Weak 2 by definition denies a 4 cards major !!!
But you cannot bid a 4 card major with a 10 or 11 HCP as an opener
The "rule of 20" is useful, provided most of points are in long suits. If your points and combined length of 2 longest suits =20, open at 1 level.
I was surprised you were the first to mention the rule of 20. The next step to that, which I discovered on my own: If you get to 17,18,19, you open a 6 card suit with 2, unless it has no honors. But if you get to 16 or lower, just pass.
I think it is good to have a second suit in any case...
It depends
No, it's pretty archaic. The competitive value of preempts is very high; the chance of making 4 of a major when you have the weakest hand at the table is very low.
Also if the second suit is hearts, it's even less appealing, since even when you have a decent 4H contract, if it's based on shape (which it will be, given you have a weak shapely hand), the opponents probably have a good 4S sacrifice that might even make.