La seguridad en cifras

Have you missed me? This is my first column in over six months; I’ve been dealing with health issues that sapped my ability to concentrate, much less play and write.

When I returned to BBO two weeks ago, I realized I needed practice to regain form. My way to practice is with Instant ACBL. I played in over 40 of the 12-board tournaments—about 500 deals. I averaged 54.5%, with standard deviation of 8.0%.  I’m an average player trying to get back in form. My scores ranged from 42%, on the very first match I played, to 69%, on the very last one.

500 deals have a lot of stories. I decided to start with the last deal I played. I was South.

Look at my second call, 2—fourth suit forcing. In all the 500 deals, I can recall only one, or maybe, two other deals where I used fourth suit forcing. I can only wonder if that reflects my rust and that I missed other opportunities. Or, is two out of five hundred normal for the occurrences of fourth suit forcing?

By my third call, I decided that 6 would be a good contract, so I bid 4NT.  On learning that partner held two aces, I was committed to bidding at least 6. A bit of thought persuaded me that 6NT would likely play as well as 6, so bid 6NT and received the lead of the 4.  The jack held.

Now some thought, which I tell you about. With the J and four tricks available with the side-suit aces and kings, I think: how to get seven more tricks? Either diamonds or clubs, alone, could provide five and then I’d need to other suit to provide two. Or if the first suit I investigated proved only four tricks, I’d need three in the other. I think I need to know the club suit harvest before attacking diamonds. If clubs provide only four tricks, I’ll need diamonds to provide three.

I lead the 3 from North and let it ride.  

Fail. West wins the club and returns a heart.  I will win four club tricks and, now I need three diamond tricks to make the contract. Now, how to play diamonds? You tell me.

If West holds the K, then a first-round finesse can eventually yield three tricks. 

If I held nine diamonds in the combined hands, then the conventional safety place of Ace, first, then lead toward the Jack would net three tricks. I decide that play, even though I hold only eight diamonds, is the best path to three diamond tricks.

I play diamonds that way, giving up a trick, and get my three tricks because West held the K10 doubleton. Those who took a first-round diamond finesse brought in the whole suit, without loss. 

Ten declarers played in 6NT. Of these, six took the diamond finesse and made seven, scoring 86%..  The rest of us, making six, scored 54%.

Safety plays, you know, often give up a trick needlessly.

7 comments on “Safety in Numbers”

  1. Not in first accounting. There were two answers: "Historical Cost" and "Page __" (depending on where historical cost was explained in that version of the latest Davidson/Weil textbook

    But I recall Roman fondly, too (UC MBA 85 JD 89)

    Mike

  2. Dear Mr. Weil,
    Thank you for your interesting article on bridge. For practice, I also like to play the Bridge Master hands on BBO. Just wanted to say thanks for teaching me a very important lesson in your previous life at the U of C. As you taught us, there are two correct answers to any question: 1) the right answer and 2) I don't know, but I'll look it up.

  3. Over the years I kept track of various bids and found that 4th suit forcing occurs with a frequency of 1%. This is based on over 200,000 auctions and includes both 1 round and game forcing. Thanks for your article.

  4. Uh, Roman, you can't lose two tricks in a small slam. I think it's better to play on diamonds first. Assuming nothing wonderful happens and you get four D tricks, you then will then have the opportunity to discover something about the opponents' distribution that might help you in C.

  5. Hate to break it to you, but you went down on that line of play. Once you've lost a club trick, you need to choose between finessing DQ and banging A, or leading DJ and finessing against K and 10 (or blotting singleton 10). The second line (leading J) is better, although you rate to go down once you misguessed the C Q.

    Without having done a full analysis, I think it's better to start with playing D first, as in addition to the chances of picking up clubs later, you may fall into various squeezes.

  6. I don't understand the point of the article. Is this a rant against bad self play or an information piece. If it's the former then say so in the introduction. If it's the latter than the article doesn't make sense. The author bids 6NT, loses a club finesse, and then takes a diamond safety play? The author doesn't have a trick to lose so playing for the singleton K doesn't work 98% of the time. Something is missing here.

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