Bridge with Another Perfect Partner
The IBPA 2022 Book of the Year By John Carruthers - available on Master Point Pr...
Not that I have much experience with ACBL Instant Matchpoint Tournaments where I see the results at fifteen tables, each with one human and three robots, but I cannot recall seeing [m]any others than this one with [almost] identical auctions and opening leads.
Refer to the accompanying North-South layout where no one will be surprised by South’s opening 2NT nor North’s raise to 3NT. Opening lead is the club 3. Plan the play before reading on….
First, let your pulse-rate slow on not getting a heart lead and consider the possible strategies, which I enumerate as follows, grouping together ones I think alike. I invite your comment on ones that you think should be separated because they have different effects on opponents’ thinking.
Have you decided on your line? Please do before reading on. Let me know if you’ve thought of a different one.
At the table, it never occurred to me to forgo the diamond finesse [50% chance to win in order to try for the drop of the singleton diamond King, 26% chance.] My main thought is that whatever induced West not to lead a heart, let’s keep him thinking that way; make him decide what to lead at trick three. There’s a 22% chance the diamonds split 3-0 and East will be void half that time, 11%. If so, I can only imagine how large will be the heart he will discard on the second trick.
I did not think of the facts in this paragraph at the table, but consider. Assume the finesse works—the on-side King was singleton so all strategies—well, except #5—worked. This means that by the time you cash six diamond tricks, three club tricks (assuming like me you wasted a club trick), and two spades, that will have accounted for eleven tricks, with only two to go. The defender with four spades and, likely, four hearts will have a devil of a time knowing which suit to retain. In fact the robot defenders who are perfect card counters unguarded the spade suit and the declarers who held onto their xx or even x in spades cashed those tricks. I confess I got sloppy and didn’t even notice that East has discarded his fourth and third spade before I had to make my critical discards and I discarded one of mine. I made only twelve tricks, not thirteen, scoring 64%, rather than 89%.
Well, what would you guess were the strategies chosen by the declarers other than me and the boobs who chose #5?
If you audit my results, you’ll see that the sum of those just above is eleven and I told you about three lost souls who led away from the A-Q of diamonds. That adds only to fourteen, but you know a tournament comprises fifteen tables. One human didn’t understand his robot’s responses to his opening 2C bid followed by a 2NT rebid, and found himself playing 4H with the South hand. Poor soul. I sympathize with humans who don’t know all the GiB conventions, but not with ones who fail to read the hints given in the bidding explanations.
I do not understand the nine declarers who went for the 26% chance of dropping the singleton King, rather than the 50% chance accompanying the finesse. (I made such a choice just yesterday, but there was a potential ruff lurking.) I invite those who understand playing that way to tell us in the Replies here.
The bidding system I use with my partners is sufficiently primitive that I think I don’t know how to bid this hand at IMPs to get to 5♦. Do you have a way to bid this hand?
Dont take any ris - you avoided h lead. Take the finesse in d!
At IMPS, you want to bid the hand to 6D, not 5D! I am not sure how the system here plays transfers after 2NT. If you had played this hand [using a different system], N would have bid 4C (transfer to D), S would have superaccepted 5D, and N would have probably set the contract at 6D.
My shoe is on the other foot. In my day job, where I write about financial accounting and corporate governance, I often pester WSJ reporters about their lack of financial literacy, particularly about their misuse of the word "reserves," the most misunderstood word in financial economics. When I poke fun at their headlines, they invariably reply that they have no control over their headlines and I've learned to desist. Here, at BBO, I don't control the headlines. And to the other comment about editorial matters, I don't think of this as a problem column, but as entertainment. The depth of the analysis in the excellent replies so far suggest it succeeded in that regard.
No difference at all between 1 and 2 in terms of 'wasteing' a club trick; 1 is slightly better since you may drop Q from QT. Why do you consider it a problem hand?
If the diamond king wins the second trick for either E or W, the singleton heart in dummy screams for a heart lead and, if the Heart Ace and King are split between E and W, the contact likely goes down. I agree with Chalmers about the headline, but enjoyed this exercise. Thank you.
Keeping E (the dangerous opponent) off lead would be the chief (only?) concern. If you lose the D finesse, the defenders would have to 'know' to attack Hearts, not Spades. If E is void in D he could use whatever discarding suit preference signal they use in their partnership agreement. If E has 1 or 2 low Ds, W wins the DK and will lead the HA if he has it, looking for a signal from E whether to continue that suit (E has already discouraged any continuation of C, although that should also be obvious to W from the first trick). So If the D finesse fails, and the HAK are split, you are likely going down. But I still like the odds.
It is clearly much more exciting to drop a singleton king off-side than to win a routine finesse. And it comes with the added bonus of not having to give up a club trick. Not that it matters anyway since there are, apparently, still 13 tricks there for the taking
This is a fascinating question, but a mis-leading heading. You're not risking an overtrick, you're praying either the diamond king drops, or the diamond finesse wins. Either way, you're good. If not, you're risking going down depending on the placement of the ace and king of hearts, and clever play by the opponents.
Some people play that 3S by North is a relay to 3N, after which 4C / 4D is minorwood. It may be an auction some humans would choose.