Bidrush #1

ACTION	MARKS	PANEL VOTES
Pass	10	8
5	7	5
5	6	2
Dbl	4	0
6	0	0
6	0	0
5NT	0	0
6	0	0
6NT	0	0
6	0	0

There appear to be only three real options, and more than 90% of competition entrants choose one of those three. The panel votes only 8-to-7 in favor of defending, but I think the passers also have the best of the debate:

BIRD: Pass. Do I want to invest a likely -500 against a diamond game that is no certainty to make? I might do so at matchpoints, but not at IMPs.

KOH: Pass. I might bid 5♠ at matchpoints, but not IMPs. Attempting to save 100 points (-500 vs -600) is too risky when it is possible either that 5♦ will go down or that the opponents should be in slam. We have already made them guess, so it is time to hope they have done the wrong thing.

FREDIN: Pass. I hope partner has a slow club trick, otherwise it will likely make.

FINDLAY: Pass. At first glance, it looks like we should be saving. 5♠ would most likely go two down for -500. However, there is a reasonable chance that partner may have a trick in one of the minors, giving us three tricks for +100. It is also possible that they can make 12 tricks, and I would not want to push them there.

COHEN: Pass. Once I pre-empt, I typically don’t bid again. Hopefully, the pre-empt has done its job. Also, I have decent defensive prospects, especially if North is 1-2 in the majors. Lastly, 5♠ is likely -500 anyway so, even if 5♦ makes, sacrificing will not show much profit.

ROBSON: Pass. I reckon 5♠ is probably two down (unless partner has a singleton diamond), so it’s no big deal to save, but I still feel a bit feeble to sell. I'll guess to lead the ♥ K.

Wen Fei makes an important point that many missed:

WANG: Pass. The five-level belongs to opponents. If partner has a singleton heart, maybe they cannot even make 5♦ .

Tim sums up the case for the defense.

COPE: Pass. Whilst one expects 5♠ to go for only 500, are we really trying to gain 3 IMPs? There are many hands where we cannot even beat 6♦ , but there will also be some on which 5♦ will go down, if we can take a spade trick, a heart trick and one unexpected trick from partner. Based on risk/reward, it must be best to pass 5♦ . We only lose out significantly if they can make exactly 11 tricks AND partner has a singleton diamond so that we could have escaped for -200.

So, what do the bidders have to say?

DEWIJS: 5♠ . Who knows?

BRINK: 5♠ . The five-level is for the opponents. But, that said, 5♠ is usually at most two down. Can 5♦ be defeated? Sure, the ♥ A is enough (and spades 1-1). But since nobody knows, I like to give the opponents the last chance to make a mistake. I bid 5♠ , and let’s hope the opponents have no idea whether to bid or not to bid.

KLUKOWSKI: 5♠ . Kind of a matchpoint bid, because we are likely to go down two for -500, but maybe partner has a stiff diamond, or the ♥ A? For me, pass is not an option.

If you are going to bid, Dave points out why 5♠ is the best option.

WILLIAMS: 5♠ . 5♥ is pointless as we are on lead already. We MIGHT get a heart trick and we MIGHT get a club trick too, if partner has something useful there. But we can’t double, as we can’t rely on a defensive spade trick and partner could just have KQJxxx and nothing else. It’s more of an offensive hand than a defensive one, so I bid to the length of our fit with 5♠ .

A few seem to be worried that, having asked his partner to choose a minor, North is going to overrule him and play in clubs anyway, leaving partner on lead.

MOSLON: 5♠ . I go with the law. I would like to bid 5♥ , but the problem is that I don’t want a heart lead against slam if spades are 1/1. So I hope for the best.

MEYERS: 5♥ . I realize this is tipping them off to my distribution, but I don’t know that a spade lead would survive, and if they bid slam and partner has a minor-suit trick I would like to get our heart trick(s) set up.

SUNDELIN: 5♥ . I am gambling that they won’t make slam on a heart lead, or that partner sacrifices with the right cards, and that 5♠ will make or be cheap, and that they make 5m. Hmmm, perhaps I am hoping too much.

Partner had KQ109xx/x/10x/Q109x so, as expected, you have four top losers in 5♠ -X. However, both sides could make only nine tricks: North was 1-3-4-5 shape and declarer in 5♦ had to lose a spade, two hearts and a club.